Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Schwaz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 1-5 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wolfurt 2-5 Schwaz
Original prediction
Schwaz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.80 | 18.7% | 11.9% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 19.1% | 12.8% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 62.3% | 75.3% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–49%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.1–57%
Predicted outcome
Schwaz
Probability
75.3%
Model confidence
75.3%
Schwaz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WolfurtLLLLL
GF 7 · GA 19 · avg 1.40/3.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SchwazWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
WolfurtSchwaz
43.3Attack76.7
16.7Defence46.7
23.3Form73.3
30.9Power67.1
1.36xG4.00