Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Wolfhagen are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Fernwald are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (41.6 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.6% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20