Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Friday, 17 July 202615:30Updated today
Świt Skolwin

Świt Skolwin

Home
L
vs
15:30
Warta Gorzów

Warta Gorzów

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Warta Gorzów33%
Świt Skolwin33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Świt Skolwin
33%
Draw
33%
Warta Gorzów
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Świt Skolwin
9
Warta Gorzów
34
Defence
Świt Skolwin
66
Warta Gorzów
27
Momentum
Świt Skolwin
0
Warta Gorzów
0
Danger (xG)
Świt Skolwin
0.00
Warta Gorzów
0.90
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.06 xG for Świt Skolwin and 1.01 xG for Warta Gorzów — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Świt Skolwin holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.08 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Świt Skolwin's Defensive Stability (66) and Warta Gorzów's (27) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Świt Skolwin)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Warta Gorzów)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Świt Skolwin)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Warta Gorzów)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Świt SkolwinŚwit Skolwin
LD
Warta GorzówWarta Gorzów
L

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
Świt Skolwin33%
Draw33%
Warta Gorzów33%

Warta Gorzów leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Świt Skolwin Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Świt Skolwin host Warta Gorzów in Friendlies Clubs. Świt Skolwin have recorded LLWWLL in recent matches while Warta Gorzów arrive with a run of WLWDLD.

Why GoalVio backs this

The xG model projects 2.06 for Świt Skolwin and 1.01 for Warta Gorzów. The gap of 1.05 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.

Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Świt Skolwin

Świt Skolwin

L
vs Stargard Szczeciński
17 Jul 2026
01
D
vs Śląsk Wrocław II
17 May 2026
33
Warta Gorzów

Warta Gorzów

L
vs Zagłębie Lubin II
15 May 2026
12

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Świt Skolwin vs Warta Gorzów?

GoalVio's model predicts Świt Skolwin to win with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Świt Skolwin vs Warta Gorzów?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Świt Skolwin vs Warta Gorzów?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Świt Skolwin vs Warta Gorzów?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more