III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4
Saturday, 1 August 202611:00Updated today
Wisła Kraków II

Wisła Kraków II

Home
WW
vs
11:00
Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice

Away
LD
GoalVio prediction
64% confidence
Wisła Kraków II(64%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Wisła Kraków II
64%
Draw
23%
Star Starachowice
14%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Wisła Kraków II
86
Star Starachowice
34
Defence
Wisła Kraków II
66
Star Starachowice
46
Momentum
Wisła Kraków II
100
Star Starachowice
17
Danger (xG)
Wisła Kraków II
2.25
Star Starachowice
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 2.99 xG for Wisła Kraków II and 1.03 xG for Star Starachowice — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Wisła Kraków II holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 4.02 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Wisła Kraków II's Attack Score (86) vs Star Starachowice's Defensive Stability (46) and Star Starachowice's attack (34) vs Wisła Kraków II's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Wisła Kraków II)
2.25
avg per match
xG for (Star Starachowice)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Wisła Kraków II)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Star Starachowice)
1.35
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Wisła Kraków IIWisła Kraków II
WW
Star StarachowiceStar Starachowice
LD

Probability breakdown

64% confidence
Wisła Kraków II64%
Draw23%
Star Starachowice14%

Wisła Kraków II leads with 64% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Wisła Kraków II Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Wisła Kraków II host Star Starachowice in III Liga - Group 4. Wisła Kraków II have recorded WWWLWL in recent matches while Star Starachowice arrive with a run of LLLWDW. These sides have met 4 times recently, averaging 4.5 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.99 expected goals for Wisła Kraków II against 1.03 for Star Starachowice — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Wisła Kraków II's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 63% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Wisła Kraków II arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (WWWLWL) against Star Starachowice's 2. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Wisła Kraków II are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.99 projected against 1.03 for Star Starachowice. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.95 is the clearest signal in the model that Wisła Kraków II are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Wisła Kraków II are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Wisła Kraków II have been conceding 1.84 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Wisła Kraków II

Wisła Kraków II

W
@ Siarka Tarnobrzeg
16 May 2026
21
W
vs Cracovia Kraków II
13 May 2026
31
Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice

L
@ Czarni Połaniec
16 May 2026
12
D
vs Avia Świdnik
13 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Wisła Kraków II vs Star Starachowice?

GoalVio's model predicts Wisła Kraków II to win with 64% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Wisła Kraków II vs Star Starachowice?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Wisła Kraków II vs Star Starachowice?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wisła Kraków II vs Star Starachowice?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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