Wingate & Finchleyvs
Hemel Hempstead Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hemel Hempstead Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wingate & Finchley 2-1 Hemel Hempstead Town
Original prediction
Hemel Hempstead Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.79 | 19.0% | 35.8% | 16.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.4% | 26.2% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 58.6% | 38.0% | -20.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Hemel Hempstead Town
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Hemel Hempstead Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00