Wingate & Finchleyvs
Carshalton Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carshalton Athletic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wingate & Finchley 4-2 Carshalton Athletic
Original prediction
Carshalton Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.9% | 29.5% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 21.0% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.5% | 49.5% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Carshalton Athletic
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Carshalton Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20