Wingate & Finchleyvs
Bedford Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wingate & Finchley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wingate & Finchley 1-3 Bedford Town
Original prediction
Wingate & Finchley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 20:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 28.8% | 36.6% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 27.7% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 47.6% | 35.8% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Wingate & Finchley
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Wingate & Finchley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40