Willem IIvs
Heerenveen
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/30/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heerenveen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen
Original prediction
Heerenveen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.87 | 24.3% | 31.3% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.7% | 25.7% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 53.0% | 43.0% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.14 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Heerenveen
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Heerenveen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00