Willem IIvs
Fortuna Sittard
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortuna Sittard · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Willem II 0-1 Fortuna Sittard
Original prediction
Fortuna Sittard
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 36.8% | 28.2% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.9% | 21.7% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 37.3% | 50.1% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Fortuna Sittard
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Fortuna Sittard has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40