Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Willem II 0-3 Excelsior
Original prediction
Excelsior
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 32.2% | 27.0% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.3% | 24.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 41.5% | 48.7% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Excelsior has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Willem IIDLLWW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ExcelsiorWLWWW
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Willem IIExcelsior
44.4Attack77.8
0.0Defence66.7
11.1Form66.7
22.7Power68.7
1.32xG2.34