Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cambuur · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Willem II 1-6 Cambuur
Original prediction
Cambuur
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 37.7% | 27.6% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.7% | 21.9% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 36.6% | 50.5% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Cambuur
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Cambuur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Willem IILLLLD
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CambuurDWDWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Willem IICambuur
33.3Attack40.7
3.7Defence40.7
7.4Form37.0
19.5Power41.2
1.26xG2.04