Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wycombe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wigan 0-1 Wycombe
Original prediction
Wycombe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 39.5% | 36.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.2% | 25.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 33.3% | 38.9% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Wycombe
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Wycombe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WiganDLWWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
WycombeWDDWL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
WiganWycombe
27.8Attack55.6
38.9Defence22.2
22.2Form33.3
31.9Power39.6
1.48xG1.64