Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reading · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wigan 1-0 Reading
Original prediction
Reading
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.62 | 25.8% | 15.3% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.7% | 19.4% | -6.3 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 48.5% | 65.3% | 16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Reading
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WiganLWLDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ReadingLWDDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WiganReading
20.8Attack81.5
45.8Defence59.3
16.7Form55.6
30.2Power63.3
0.73xG2.39