GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/12/2024, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Wigan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Wigan are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Nottingham Forest U21 are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Wigan hold an 18.6-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Wigan holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Wigan

Probability

63.3%

Model confidence

63.3%

Wigan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

WiganLDLLW

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Nottingham Forest U21LWWWL

GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
WiganNottingham Forest U21
86.7Attack41.7
66.7Defence50.0
60.0Form50.0
67.7Power49.1
2.50xG1.13
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