Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wigan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Wigan are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Morecambe are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Wigan hold a 29.0-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 38.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Wigan holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wigan
Probability
68.5%
Model confidence
68.5%
Wigan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 0 · GA 7 · avg 0.00/1.40