Wigan Athletic U21vs
Bolton Wanderers Res.
COMPLETEDEngland · Professional Development League · 10/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton Wanderers Res. · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 1-5 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wigan Athletic U21 1-3 Bolton Wanderers Res.
Original prediction
Bolton Wanderers Res.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.6% | 21.3% | -17.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.3% | 16.8% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 39.0% | 61.9% | 22.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–48%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–57%
Predicted outcome
Bolton Wanderers Res.
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Bolton Wanderers Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 13 · avg 2.60/2.60
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40