Wieczysta Krakówvs
Raków Częstochowa
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wieczysta Kraków · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wieczysta Kraków 1-2 Raków Częstochowa
Original prediction
Wieczysta Kraków
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.8% | 58.9% | 13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.6% | 18.8% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.6% | 22.4% | -7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Wieczysta Kraków
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Wieczysta Kraków has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40