Widzew IIvs
Warta Sieradz
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 1 · 10/21/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Widzew II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Widzew II 0-1 Warta Sieradz
Original prediction
Widzew II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.1% | 37.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 27.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.4% | 34.7% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Widzew II
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Widzew II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60