Widzew Łódźvs
Lech Poznan
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 8/30/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Widzew Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan
Original prediction
Lech Poznan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 30.9% | 34.6% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.8% | 28.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 43.3% | 37.3% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznan
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 18 · GA 2 · avg 3.60/0.40