Whitby Townvs
Lancaster City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Whitby Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Whitby Town 1-2 Lancaster City
Original prediction
Whitby Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.0% | 41.3% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.1% | 25.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.0% | 33.2% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Whitby Town
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Whitby Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 16 · avg 2.40/3.20
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80