Whitby Townvs
Alfreton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alfreton Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Whitby Town 1-4 Alfreton Town
Original prediction
Alfreton Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 28.5% | 25.1% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 22.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 44.8% | 52.2% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Alfreton Town
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Alfreton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20