Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Weymouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Weymouth 3-2 Sholing
Original prediction
Weymouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.5% | 40.6% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.4% | 25.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.2% | 33.6% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Weymouth
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Weymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WeymouthLDWDW
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SholingDWLDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
WeymouthSholing
100.0Attack33.3
44.4Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
83.3Power80.3
2.04xG1.48