Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Weymouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Weymouth 1-5 SE Dons
Original prediction
Weymouth
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.7% | 46.9% | -24.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.27 | 17.3% | 25.6% | 8.3 pts |
| Away | 8.25 | 11.0% | 27.5% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Weymouth
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Weymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WeymouthDWDWW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SE DonsWW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 2.50/1.00
BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
WeymouthSE Dons
83.3Attack83.3
83.3Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
91.7Power86.5
1.90xG1.56