Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wexford 2-5 UCD
Original prediction
UCD
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.1% | 32.2% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.9% | 27.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.0% | 40.4% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WexfordDDLWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
UCDDWLLD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WexfordUCD
40.0Attack59.0
49.5Defence53.3
40.0Form50.5
45.3Power53.9
1.17xG1.68