Wexfordvs
Longford Town
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wexford · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wexford 3-3 Longford Town
Original prediction
Wexford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.3% | 36.9% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.1% | 29.4% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 24.6% | 33.7% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Wexford
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Wexford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20