GGOALVIO

Australia · Northern NSW NPL · 5/5/2024, 4:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Weston Bears · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-0

Highconfidence

Weston Bears are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lake Macquarie are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Weston Bears hold a 47.5-point power-rating edge (62.4 v 14.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 89.2% in the Northern NSW NPL, while Weston Bears holds the strongest overall chance at 89% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Weston Bears

Probability

89.2%

Model confidence

89.2%

Weston Bears has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Weston BearsWLLWL

GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Lake MacquarieLLWLL

GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Weston BearsLake Macquarie
76.2Attack30.3
47.6Defence0.0
63.5Form6.1
62.4Power14.9
4.50xG0.78
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