Werder Bremenvs
SC Paderborn 07
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Werder Bremen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07
Original prediction
Werder Bremen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 53.1% | 51.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.5% | 23.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.07 | 23.3% | 25.6% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Werder Bremen
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Werder Bremen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40