Werder Bremenvs
RB Leipzig
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
RB Leipzig · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig
Original prediction
RB Leipzig
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.07 | 23.3% | 28.1% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 23.2% | 25.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 53.6% | 46.6% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
RB Leipzig
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
RB Leipzig has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00