Werder Bremenvs
FC Augsburg
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Augsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Werder Bremen 3-2 FC Augsburg
Original prediction
FC Augsburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 41.3% | 32.1% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 25.0% | 24.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.7% | 43.6% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Augsburg
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
FC Augsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40