Wellington Phoenixvs
Melbourne Victory
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wellington Phoenix · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Melbourne Victory
Original prediction
Wellington Phoenix
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 30.1% | 36.7% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.6% | 27.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 44.3% | 36.1% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Wellington Phoenix
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Wellington Phoenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40