Wellington Phoenix IIvs
Auckland United
COMPLETEDNew-Zealand · National League - National · 9/26/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auckland United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wellington Phoenix II 1-1 Auckland United
Original prediction
Auckland United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 12:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.25 | 21.1% | 34.0% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.26 | 21.1% | 26.8% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.8% | 39.2% | -18.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Auckland United
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Auckland United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/3.50
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80