Wellington Olympicvs
Ferrymead Bays
COMPLETEDNew-Zealand · National League - National · 10/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wellington Olympic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wellington Olympic 1-2 Ferrymead Bays
Original prediction
Wellington Olympic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 12:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 59.6% | 47.4% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.44 | 20.5% | 25.8% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 4.58 | 19.9% | 26.8% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Wellington Olympic
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Wellington Olympic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60