Welling Unitedvs
Chertsey Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Welling United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Welling United 2-2 Chertsey Town
Original prediction
Welling United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.1% | 44.7% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.0% | 29.7% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Welling United
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Welling United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20