Welling Unitedvs
Burgess Hill Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Welling United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Welling United 4-2 Burgess Hill Town
Original prediction
Welling United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.1% | 54.3% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 22.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 27.9% | 23.6% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Welling United
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Welling United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20