Wealdstonevs
Carlisle
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wealdstone 1-1 Carlisle
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 26.1% | 29.2% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.0% | 25.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 48.9% | 45.6% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40