Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nejmeh · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wathba 2-1 Al Nejmeh
Original prediction
Al Nejmeh
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.3% | 34.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.4% | 28.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.3% | 36.5% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Nejmeh
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Al Nejmeh has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WathbaWDDWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al NejmehWDWWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WathbaAl Nejmeh
33.3Attack33.3
83.3Defence100.0
66.7Form100.0
64.8Power80.3
1.31xG1.23