Watford Wvs
Sunderland W
COMPLETEDEngland · Women's Championship · 9/27/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford W 1-2 Sunderland W
Original prediction
Sunderland W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.11 | 14.7% | 24.7% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.57 | 19.7% | 26.1% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 65.6% | 49.2% | -16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland W
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Sunderland W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60