Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford W 0-0 Burnley W
Original prediction
Burnley W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.8% | 30.6% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.7% | 27.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.5% | 42.0% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Burnley W
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Burnley W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Watford WWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Burnley WNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
Watford WBurnley W
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
22.7Form50.0
32.7Power50.0
1.00xG1.90