Waterfordvs
Galway United
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 10/19/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waterford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waterford 3-2 Galway United
Original prediction
Waterford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.8% | 41.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.9% | 24.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.3% | 34.5% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Waterford
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Waterford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40