Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dundalk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waterford 1-1 Dundalk
Original prediction
Dundalk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 39.3% | 36.1% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.0% | 23.1% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.7% | 40.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Dundalk
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Dundalk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WaterfordWWDWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DundalkLWLWL
GF 16 · GA 11 · avg 3.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
WaterfordDundalk
44.8Attack52.9
44.8Defence48.3
36.8Form46.0
43.7Power50.6
1.46xG1.63