Waterfordvs
Drogheda United
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 10/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waterford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waterford 3-1 Drogheda United
Original prediction
Waterford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 53.8% | 47.5% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.0% | 24.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 21.2% | 28.3% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Waterford
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Waterford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20