Waterfordvs
Derry City
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 9/14/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derry City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waterford 2-2 Derry City
Original prediction
Derry City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.8% | 34.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.7% | 24.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 39.5% | 41.3% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Derry City
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20