Warta Poznańvs
Unia Skierniewice
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warta Poznań · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warta Poznań 1-0 Unia Skierniewice
Original prediction
Warta Poznań
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.6% | 45.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.9% | 26.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.5% | 27.6% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Warta Poznań
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Warta Poznań has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20