Warta Poznańvs
Puszcza Niepołomice
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warta Poznań · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warta Poznań 3-2 Puszcza Niepołomice
Original prediction
Warta Poznań
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.8% | 42.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.5% | 30.4% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Warta Poznań
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Warta Poznań has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20