Warta Poznańvs
Arka Gdynia
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arka Gdynia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warta Poznań 3-0 Arka Gdynia
Original prediction
Arka Gdynia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.5% | 33.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.7% | 26.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.8% | 40.5% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Arka Gdynia
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Arka Gdynia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80