Warta Gorzówvs
Polonia Nysa
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warta Gorzów · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warta Gorzów 0-1 Polonia Nysa
Original prediction
Warta Gorzów
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.4% | 52.5% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.3% | 23.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.4% | 23.7% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Warta Gorzów
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Warta Gorzów has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20