Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warriors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warriors 1-5 Kitchee
Original prediction
Warriors
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.0% | 42.5% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.1% | 24.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.0% | 33.1% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Warriors
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Warriors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WarriorsWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
KitcheeDWLDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WarriorsKitchee
86.7Attack93.3
93.3Defence73.3
100.0Form86.7
93.4Power83.5
1.96xG1.58