Warrington Townvs
Lancaster City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warrington Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warrington Town 2-2 Lancaster City
Original prediction
Warrington Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 47.7% | 55.4% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.2% | 22.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.2% | 22.0% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Warrington Town
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Warrington Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60