Warrenpoint Townvs
Crusaders FC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · League Cup · 10/21/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crusaders FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Warrenpoint Town 5-2 Crusaders FC
Original prediction
Crusaders FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 27.2% | 36.5% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.3% | 26.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.86 | 48.5% | 37.4% | -11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Crusaders FC
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Crusaders FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20