GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 2/13/2023, 9:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Wanderers are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Defensor Sporting are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Wanderers hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (52.4 v 48.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

44.4%

Model confidence

44.4%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

WanderersWLLDD

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Defensor SportingLLLDL

GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WanderersDefensor Sporting
41.7Attack27.5
58.3Defence69.6
52.8Form39.1
52.4Power48.1
0.83xG0.61
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